General Motors has announced it’s shuttering five production facilities and killing six vehicle platforms by the end of 2019 as it reallocates resources towards self-driving technologies and electric vehicles. The announcements should come as a surprise to no one, as they echo a similar announcement made by Ford earlier this year that it will exit all car production other than Mustang within two years. Why the sudden attitude adjustment toward cars? Well, both firms cite a focus on trucks, SUVs and crossovers. OK, sure — that’s what more people are buying when they buy a vehicle today. But there is a broader and more long-term element to this discussion.
Avons-nous atteint le Peak Car ?
Many may remember the dialogue associated with Peak Oil, or the idea that we had reached or would soon reach the peak production levels of oil around the globe. Such forecasts and predictions were likely related to price run-ups on commodity and investment strategies in the oil industry. However, new exploration discoveries and extraction technologies ultimately mean we are a long way from running out of oil. While we may still hit peak production in the near future, it is more likely due to a decreasing need as society moves to alternative energy sources. But what about cars? North American car production hit 17.5 million vehicles in 2016, and dropped marginally to 17.2 million in 2017. Interesting, but perhaps not significant. More telling are changes in driver behaviour. In North America, for example, fewer teens are getting driver’s licences. In 1983, 92 per cent of teens were licensed, while by 2014, that number had dropped to 77 per cent. In Germany, the number of new licences issued to drivers aged 17 to 25 has dropped by 300,000 over the last 10 years.
L'avenir est sans conducteur
Factor in ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft, the comprehensive cost of vehicle ownership and more effective public transportation (everywhere but Canada) and we get a sense of some of the reasons for these evolving automotive strategies. Most significant, however, is the evolution of self-driving technology. Picture this scenario: Julie is an ER doctor at the local hospital, on the 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. shift. She jumps in the family car at 6:30 a.m. and is at the hospital by 6:50 a.m. After dropping Julie off, the car then heads home, arriving in time to take Julie’s two children to their high school; one of them tosses their hockey equipment in the back of the car. The car then returns home to take Julie’s husband to the law office where he starts work at 9 a.m. The car then swings by the school to take Julie’s daughter to hockey practice at 2:30 p.m., and then returns to the hospital to pick Julie up. And so on. Une voiture Range Rover à conduite autonome exposée lors d'une démonstration de voitures connectées et autonomes qui se gareront, freineront d'urgence et montreront d'autres fonctions de véhicule d'urgence et d'avertissement pour la première fois sur des routes publiques ouvertes à Milton Keynes, en Angleterre, en mars 2018. La technologie nécessaire à la réalisation du scénario ci-dessus existe aujourd'hui et permettra de réduire le nombre de voitures grâce à une approche plus économique et plus efficace de la gestion des véhicules, que ce soit par le biais de la propriété indépendante des ménages ou de l'adhésion à un parc de véhicules. Dans l'état actuel des choses, une famille comme celle de Julie aurait besoin de deux, voire trois véhicules, qui resteraient immobiles la majeure partie de la journée. Demain, la famille pourrait n'avoir plus qu'un seul véhicule, éventuellement un SUV pour l'équipement de hockey. Que se passera-t-il lorsque des familles ou des groupes de personnes mettront davantage leurs actifs en commun afin de développer le covoiturage ou d'augmenter la capacité ?
Moins de voitures sur les routes d'ici dix ans
We are moving from a do-it-yourself (DIY) transportation economy to a sharing or do-it-for-me (DIFM) economy. Many of us won’t like it — I honestly like to drive — but the numbers and the technology are there. As safety technologies improve and societal paradigms shift, this evolution will gather momentum. Based on the young driver statistics above, it seems reasonable to anticipate a reduction in cars per capita of 20 to 30 per cent in the next decade. Unions at GM and Ford are justifiably unhappy, but they shouldn’t be surprised. It is quite possible that we have reached Peak Car in North America and Europe. Companies that want to succeed in this new environment will need to be different, and especially better in some way. If car volumes drop by 30 per cent over the next 10 years, there better be something special about the car company that hopes to survive, let alone prosper — like better technology, better comfort or better service. If current trends continue, we can anticipate more shutdown announcements — like GM’s — from car companies and parts suppliers, as there won’t be room for all of them.
